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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Como cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Monza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Como beat Monza 1-3 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.00 xG and Como 1.12 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Como outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.71 / defence 1.12 against Como attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 31% | Draw 32% | Como 37%, with Como to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 44%, Como 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Como's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Como (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights