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Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Monza 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Monza 1-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.23 xG and Cagliari 1.16 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against Cagliari attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 37% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 34%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 41%, Cagliari 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Cagliari's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monza 0.98 PPG, Cagliari 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights