🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lecce and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lecce and Venezia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.02 xG and Venezia 1.03 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.68 / defence 1.22 against Venezia attack 0.72 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lecce 33% | Draw 33% | Venezia 34%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 40%, Venezia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lecce's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights