🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Lecce defy the odds to beat Torino 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lecce beat Torino 2-1 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.82 xG and Torino 1.01 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lecce beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.69 / defence 0.98 against Torino attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lecce 27% | Draw 35% | Torino 38%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lecce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 38%, Torino 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lecce's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Torino's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lecce 0.88 PPG, Torino 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights