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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Lecce 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Lecce 1-2 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.96 xG and Cagliari 1.01 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.78 / defence 1.13 against Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lecce 33% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 36%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 39%, Cagliari 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lecce's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Cagliari's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lecce 0.85 PPG, Cagliari 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights