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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lecce and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lecce and Bologna finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.98 xG and Bologna 1.03 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lecce beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Bologna attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lecce 32% | Draw 34% | Bologna 35%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 40%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lecce's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Bologna's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights