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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sun 28 Sep 2025

17:00

Venue

Stadio Via del Mare

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bologna Win

32%

Lecce

3.15

34%

Draw

2.98

35%

Bologna

2.88

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

13.8%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.5%

Draw

0 – 0

13.4%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.98

Lecce xG

Total xG

2.01

1.03

Bologna xG

32%
34%
35%
LecceDrawBologna

3.15

32%

Home win

2.98

34%

Draw

2.88

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

60%

Over 1.5

1.67

40%

Under 1.5

2.50

33%

Over 2.5

3.03

67%

Under 2.5

1.49

14%

Over 3.5

7.14

86%

Under 3.5

1.16

5%

Over 4.5

20.00

95%

Under 4.5

1.05

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

42%

BTTS Yes

2.40

58%

BTTS No

1.71

Clean Sheet

36%

Lecce

2.81

38%

Bologna

2.66

Win to Nil

11%

Lecce

8.86

13%

Bologna

7.66

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 13.4 13.8 7.2 2.5 0.6 0.1
1 13.1 13.5 7.0 2.4 0.6 0.1
2 6.4 6.6 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.1
3 2.1 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.977
λ Away (xG) 1.034
Total xG 2.011
League avg home goals 1.178
League avg away goals 1.105
Lecce attack strength 0.819
Lecce defence strength 1.191
Bologna attack strength 0.786
Bologna defence strength 1.012
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 42 / 42