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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lecce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Lecce 0-2 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.78 xG and AS Roma 1.01 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against AS Roma attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lecce 27% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 40%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 38%, AS Roma 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lecce's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AS Roma's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights