Lecce 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lecce face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AS Roma make the trip to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare to face Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Lecce (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Lecce have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
AS Roma away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AS Roma arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, AS Roma have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Lecce's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–4 with AS Roma winning.
It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 42% versus AS Roma 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 40% | AS Roma 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.86 xG and AS Roma 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.742 / defence 1.234 | AS Roma attack 0.919 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.196. Lecce's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Lecce games / 67 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 22% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 47%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | AS Roma 2.13. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Lecce 50% | AS Roma 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 22% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Lecce 0.86 / AS Roma 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.742 / def 1.234 | AS Roma attack 0.919 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.36
AS Roma xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs AS Roma kick off?
Lecce vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs AS Roma?
Lecce 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Lecce vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs AS Roma part of?
Lecce vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 22% chance of winning, AS Roma a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lecce and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and AS Roma?
Record (5 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 3W.
What form are Lecce and AS Roma in?
Lecce (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lecce's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.92x) against Lecce's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
22%
4.48
31%
3.22
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.22
1.36
AS Roma xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.40
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.7 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lecce and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Lecce and 1.36 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Lecce have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 14W 21D 32L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 32W 16D 19L from 67 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lecce.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lecce have posted 1.15 PPG from 33 outings (9W 11D 13L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 10W 11D 12L from 33 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Attack vs Defence
Lecce are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.63 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 14W 21D 32L in their last 67 games (0.94 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 32W 16D 19L in their last 67 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.15 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Lecce or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, AS Roma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Lecce
2
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and AS Roma?
From 9 meetings on record, Lecce have won 0, AS Roma have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Lecce 0-4 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 42%, AS Roma 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lecce) and 52% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 42% of games; AS Roma in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lecce's recent matches and 61% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lecce's recent games and 52% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and AS Roma tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Lecce 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Lecce 0-1 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.86 xG and AS Roma 1.36 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lecce fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.74 / defence 1.23 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 22% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 47%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 40%, AS Roma 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.