🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lazio and Udinese share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lazio and Udinese finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.25 xG and Udinese 1.43 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Udinese attack 1.21 / defence 1.00, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lazio 33% | Draw 26% | Udinese 41%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 44%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lazio's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Udinese's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lazio 1.58 PPG, Udinese 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights