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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lazio and Torino share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lazio and Torino finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.67 xG and Torino 0.94 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Torino outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Torino attack 0.88 / defence 1.23, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lazio 54% | Draw 25% | Torino 21%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 58%, Torino 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lazio's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Torino's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Torino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights