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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lazio and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lazio and Fiorentina finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.52 xG and Fiorentina 0.73 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.02 / defence 0.87 against Fiorentina attack 0.73 / defence 1.29, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lazio 56% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 18%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 46%, Fiorentina 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lazio's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Fiorentina's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lazio 1.59 PPG, Fiorentina 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights