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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lazio defy the odds to beat AC Milan 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lazio beat AC Milan 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 0.91 xG and AC Milan 1.78 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AC Milan landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 0.99 / defence 1.13 against AC Milan attack 1.35 / defence 0.71, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lazio 19% | Draw 23% | AC Milan 58%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Lazio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 47%, AC Milan 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lazio's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

AC Milan's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lazio 1.55 PPG, AC Milan 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights