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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juventus and Sassuolo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Juventus and Sassuolo drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.98 xG and Sassuolo 1.03 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Juventus fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.43 / defence 0.86 against Sassuolo attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventus 59% | Draw 21% | Sassuolo 19%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 45%, Sassuolo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventus's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Sassuolo's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventus 1.84 PPG, Sassuolo 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights