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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juventus and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus and Fiorentina finished level at 2-2 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 0.98 xG and Fiorentina 1.30 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Juventus beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Fiorentina attack 1.09 / defence 0.72, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventus 28% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 44%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 41%, Fiorentina 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventus's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Fiorentina's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventus 1.83 PPG, Fiorentina 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights