🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Juventus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bologna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus beat Bologna 2-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.60 xG and Bologna 1.13 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bologna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.33 / defence 0.83 against Bologna attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventus 48% | Draw 25% | Bologna 27%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 43%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventus's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bologna's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventus 1.86 PPG, Bologna 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights