Juventus vs Bologna – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Juventus and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Juventus and Bologna drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.53 xG and Bologna 0.98 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.95 / defence 0.71 against Bologna attack 1.10 / defence 1.19, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventus 49% | Draw 27% | Bologna 23%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 37%, Bologna 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventus's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Bologna's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventus 1.84 PPG, Bologna 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights