Juventus vs Bologna – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juventus's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.10x) against Juventus's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.65
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.52
0.98
Bologna xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
19.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Juventus and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Juventus and 0.98 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.