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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juventus and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Juventus and Atalanta drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.34 xG and Atalanta 1.62 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.42 / defence 1.04 against Atalanta attack 1.37 / defence 0.81, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventus 31% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 44%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 40%, Atalanta 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventus's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Atalanta's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventus 1.90 PPG, Atalanta 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights