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Dominant Inter run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Pisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Pisa 6-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.65 xG and Pisa 0.94 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.59 / defence 0.79 against Pisa attack 1.02 / defence 1.46, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 74% | Draw 15% | Pisa 11%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 56%, Pisa 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Pisa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Inter (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights