Inter 6-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inter and Pisa meet at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Inter have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pisa (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's away record: 0W 7D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Inter's 2.50 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Pisa's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Inter, 0 for Pisa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Inter winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Inter — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Pisa — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 46% versus Pisa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 56% | Pisa 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 2.65 xG and Pisa 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.589 / defence 0.794 | Pisa attack 1.025 / defence 1.463. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.153. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.589 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.463 — this is suppressing Inter's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Inter's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Inter games / 21 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 74% | Draw 15% | Pisa 11%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.35 | Draw 6.67 | Pisa 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Inter (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Inter 50% | Pisa 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 74% | Draw 15% | Pisa 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 57% | xG Inter 2.65 / Pisa 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.589 / def 0.794 | Pisa attack 1.025 / def 1.463 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Inter (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Pisa xG
57%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Pisa kick off?
Inter vs Pisa kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 23 January 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Pisa?
Inter 6 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Inter vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Pisa part of?
Inter vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 74% chance of winning, Pisa a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Inter and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Inter 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Inter and Pisa in?
Inter (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Pisa (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Inter's attack at 1.59x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 2.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.02x) against Inter's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
74%
1.35
15%
6.56
11%
9.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
Inter xG
Total xG
3.59
0.94
Pisa xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.56
15%
Draw
9.19
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
7%
14.22
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
1%
130.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Inter and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Inter and 0.94 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Inter have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 40W 10D 9L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa's form line: 23W 19D 17L from 59 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pisa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.24 PPG from 29 outings (20W 5D 4L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 9W 11D 9L from 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inter are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.32 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Pisa in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 40W 10D 9L in their last 59 games (2.20 PPG), while Pisa have gone 23W 19D 17L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Pisa away?
Inter's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.24 PPG; Pisa away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Inter or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Pisa in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Inter
0
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Inter have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Inter 6-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Pisa?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 59%, Pisa 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Inter and 52% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Pisa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Inter's games and 59% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Inter's matches and 52% of Pisa's.
Do Inter and Pisa tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Pisa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inter run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Pisa 6-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.65 xG and Pisa 0.94 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.59 / defence 0.79 against Pisa attack 1.02 / defence 1.46, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 74% | Draw 15% | Pisa 11%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 56%, Pisa 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Inter (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.