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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter and Napoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter and Napoli finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.38 xG and Napoli 0.86 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Napoli outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.66 / defence 0.76 against Napoli attack 0.96 / defence 0.72, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 49% | Draw 28% | Napoli 23%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 57%, Napoli 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Napoli's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Inter 2.20 PPG, Napoli 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Inter (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights