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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter and Lazio share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter and Lazio finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.35 xG and Lazio 1.16 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lazio outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.26 / defence 0.95 against Lazio attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 40% | Draw 28% | Lazio 32%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 55%, Lazio 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Lazio's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights