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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Genoa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Genoa 2-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.46 xG and Genoa 1.08 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genoa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.73 / defence 0.93 against Genoa attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 68% | Draw 18% | Genoa 15%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 56%, Genoa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Genoa's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights