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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Inter run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cagliari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Cagliari 3-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.84 xG and Cagliari 1.01 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.73 / defence 0.97 against Cagliari attack 0.90 / defence 1.29, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 75% | Draw 14% | Cagliari 11%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 54%, Cagliari 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cagliari's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.99. That form edge translated into the three points. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights