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Dominant Inter run riot with a 5-2 hammering of AS Roma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat AS Roma 5-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.81 xG and AS Roma 1.02 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Roma outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.55 / defence 0.88 against AS Roma attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 56% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 21%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 53%, AS Roma 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

AS Roma's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Inter 2.21 PPG, AS Roma 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter win broke the near-deadlock. Inter (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights