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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Hellas Verona 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Hellas Verona 2-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.04 xG and Bologna 1.76 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Bologna attack 1.21 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 22% | Draw 24% | Bologna 54%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 51%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Bologna's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights