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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Hellas Verona 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Hellas Verona 1-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.99 xG and Bologna 1.60 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.73 / defence 1.41 against Bologna attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 29% | Bologna 49%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 54%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Bologna's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights