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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hellas Verona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 0-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.84 xG and AS Roma 1.52 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.60 / defence 1.09 against AS Roma attack 1.22 / defence 1.14, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 53%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 49%, AS Roma 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AS Roma's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights