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Poisson model favours AS Roma (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face AS Roma.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 38 as Hellas Verona welcome AS Roma to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

AS Roma away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.90 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Hellas Verona's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Hellas Verona, 5 for AS Roma and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Hellas Verona trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

AS Roma trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 45% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 49% | AS Roma 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.84 xG and AS Roma 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.603 / defence 1.087 | AS Roma attack 1.215 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.151. Hellas Verona's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 75 Hellas Verona games / 75 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 53%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 1.89. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 30% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.

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