Hellas Verona 0-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours AS Roma (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 38 as Hellas Verona welcome AS Roma to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
AS Roma away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.90 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Hellas Verona's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Hellas Verona, 5 for AS Roma and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
AS Roma trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 45% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 49% | AS Roma 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.84 xG and AS Roma 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.603 / defence 1.087 | AS Roma attack 1.215 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.151. Hellas Verona's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 75 Hellas Verona games / 75 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 53%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 1.89. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 30% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Hellas Verona 0.84 / AS Roma 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.603 / def 1.087 | AS Roma attack 1.215 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.52
AS Roma xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs AS Roma kick off?
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Hellas Verona 0 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma part of?
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 21% chance of winning, AS Roma a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hellas Verona and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
Record (9 meetings): Hellas Verona 3W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 5W.
What form are Hellas Verona and AS Roma in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. AS Roma (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
21%
4.83
26%
3.85
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.36
1.52
AS Roma xG
4.83
21%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
5%
22.06
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.52 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 13W 19D 43L from 75 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 42W 13D 20L across 75 games — 1.85 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 5W 10D 22L from 37 games — 0.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 16W 8D 13L across 37 trips, a 1.51 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.51 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 13W 19D 43L in their last 75 games (0.77 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 42W 13D 20L in their last 75 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.68 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, AS Roma in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, AS Roma have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 40%, AS Roma 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Hellas Verona) and 35% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 38%; Hellas Verona have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 46% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 35% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and AS Roma tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 0-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.84 xG and AS Roma 1.52 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.60 / defence 1.09 against AS Roma attack 1.22 / defence 1.14, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 53%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 49%, AS Roma 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.