🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as AC Milan edge out Hellas Verona 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Milan beat Hellas Verona 0-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.40 xG and AC Milan 2.29 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona fell 1.4 short of their projected output. AC Milan landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.99 / defence 1.58 against AC Milan attack 1.08 / defence 1.07, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 23% | Draw 20% | AC Milan 57%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 60%, AC Milan 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AC Milan's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights