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Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Sassuolo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat Sassuolo 2-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.40 xG and Sassuolo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.06 / defence 1.09 against Sassuolo attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 40% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 34%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 46%, Sassuolo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Sassuolo's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights