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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Genoa and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 18, as Genoa and Pisa drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.33 xG and Pisa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.77 / defence 1.20 against Pisa attack 1.02 / defence 1.44, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 37% | Draw 26% | Pisa 37%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 47%, Pisa 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Pisa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights