Genoa vs Parma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Parma in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 24 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Parma's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Parma have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Genoa's favour (1.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Genoa lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Parma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus Parma 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 50% | Parma 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.31 xG and Parma 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.894 / defence 0.872 | Parma attack 0.872 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.503. Data: 48 Genoa games / 48 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 27% | Parma 32%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Parma 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 27% | Parma 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Genoa 1.31 / Parma 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.894 / def 0.872 | Parma attack 0.872 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Genoa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Parma xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Parma kick off?
Genoa vs Parma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 January 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Genoa vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Parma part of?
Genoa vs Parma is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 41% chance of winning, Parma a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Genoa and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Parma?
Record (7 meetings): Genoa 2W | Draws 3 | Parma 2W.
What form are Genoa and Parma in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Parma (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.89x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.87x) against Genoa's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.68
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.46
1.14
Parma xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Genoa and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Genoa and 1.14 for Parma, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 14W 12D 22L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 13W 14D 21L from 48 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Genoa against 1.10 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (9W 4D 11L).
On the road, Parma have gone 7W 6D 11L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.75 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Parma in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 14W 12D 22L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Parma have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Parma away?
Genoa's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.29 PPG; Parma away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Genoa or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Parma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Genoa
3
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Parma?
From 7 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Parma have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Parma 2-1 Genoa.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 50%, Parma 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Genoa) and 38% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 38%; Genoa have failed to score in 33% of games; Parma in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Genoa's recent matches and 33% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Genoa's recent games and 38% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Parma tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Parma in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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