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Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 7, as Genoa and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.89 xG and Parma 0.90 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Parma landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.72 / defence 1.15 against Parma attack 0.73 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 32% | Draw 35% | Parma 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Parma 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Parma's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genoa 1.02 PPG, Parma 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights