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Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Parma 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat Parma 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.44 xG and Parma 1.03 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Parma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Parma attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 45% | Draw 30% | Parma 25%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Parma 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Parma's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights