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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Genoa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Genoa 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.76 xG and Napoli 1.57 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Napoli attack 1.15 / defence 0.71, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 18% | Draw 25% | Napoli 57%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Napoli 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Napoli's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights