Genoa 2-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lecce's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lecce's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Genoa 1W, Lecce 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus Lecce 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 39% | Lecce 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.26 xG and Lecce 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.889 / defence 0.874 | Lecce attack 0.787 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.243. Data: 66 Genoa games / 66 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 43% | Draw 33% | Lecce 23%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Lecce 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Lecce 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 43% | Draw 33% | Lecce 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Genoa 1.26 / Lecce 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.889 / def 0.874 | Lecce attack 0.787 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Genoa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Lecce xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Lecce kick off?
Genoa vs Lecce kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 14 March 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Lecce?
Genoa 2 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Genoa vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Lecce part of?
Genoa vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 43% chance of winning, Lecce a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Genoa and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lecce?
Record (3 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 1 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Genoa and Lecce in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Lecce (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lecce's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.79x) against Genoa's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
43%
2.30
33%
2.99
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.11
0.85
Lecce xG
2.30
43%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
7%
15.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Genoa and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Genoa and 0.85 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa come into this having played 66 games, going 19W 24D 23L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 0.95 PPG from 66 outings (14W 21D 31L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Genoa against 0.95 for Lecce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Genoa's home form reads 11W 13D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 0.76 points per game from 33 outings (5W 10D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.79 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Lecce in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 19W 24D 23L in their last 66 games (1.23 PPG), while Lecce have gone 14W 21D 31L in their last 66 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Lecce away?
Genoa's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.39 PPG; Lecce away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Genoa
2
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lecce?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Lecce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Lecce 1-0 Genoa.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 54%, Lecce 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Genoa) and 36% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Lecce in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Genoa's recent matches and 39% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Genoa's recent games and 36% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Lecce tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lecce in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Lecce 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Lecce 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.26 xG and Lecce 0.85 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.89 / defence 0.87 against Lecce attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 43% | Draw 33% | Lecce 23%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Lecce 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.23 PPG, Lecce 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.