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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Genoa and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 27, as Genoa and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.70 xG and Empoli 1.03 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Empoli attack 0.97 / defence 1.40, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 51% | Draw 27% | Empoli 21%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Empoli 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Empoli's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genoa 1.23 PPG, Empoli 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights