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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Genoa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cagliari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat Cagliari 3-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.04 xG and Cagliari 1.28 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cagliari landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against Cagliari attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 30% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 42%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 46%, Cagliari 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Cagliari's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genoa 1.04 PPG, Cagliari 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights