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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Bologna 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat Bologna 3-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.12 xG and Bologna 1.50 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Bologna attack 1.28 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 28% | Draw 26% | Bologna 46%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 46%, Bologna 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Bologna's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights