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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Genoa 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta beat Genoa 2-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.64 xG and Atalanta 1.79 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atalanta outscored their 1.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Atalanta attack 1.58 / defence 0.60, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 12% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 64%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Atalanta 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Atalanta's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights