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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AC Milan edge out Genoa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Milan beat Genoa 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.09 xG and AC Milan 1.48 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against AC Milan attack 1.38 / defence 1.04, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 28% | Draw 27% | AC Milan 45%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 38%, AC Milan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

AC Milan's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights