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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 35

Kick-off

Mon 5 May 2025

19:45

Venue

Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

AC Milan Win

28%

Genoa

3.62

27%

Draw

3.72

45%

AC Milan

2.20

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.4%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

11.3%

Away win

1 – 2

9.1%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.09

Genoa xG

Total xG

2.57

1.48

AC Milan xG

28%
27%
45%
GenoaDrawAC Milan

3.62

28%

Home win

3.72

27%

Draw

2.20

45%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.07

Clean Sheet

23%

Genoa

4.38

33%

AC Milan

2.99

Win to Nil

6%

Genoa

15.82

15%

AC Milan

6.57

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.6 11.3 8.3 4.1 1.5 0.4
1 8.4 12.4 9.1 4.5 1.7 0.5
2 4.6 6.8 5.0 2.5 0.9 0.3
3 1.7 2.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.095
λ Away (xG) 1.476
Total xG 2.571
League avg home goals 1.158
League avg away goals 1.116
Genoa attack strength 0.907
Genoa defence strength 0.958
AC Milan attack strength 1.380
AC Milan defence strength 1.042
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 72 / 72