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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Udinese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Udinese 5-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.25 xG and Udinese 1.43 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.93 / defence 1.30 against Udinese attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 33% | Draw 26% | Udinese 41%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 60%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Udinese's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.34 PPG, Udinese 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights