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Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese beat Fiorentina 1-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.87 xG and Udinese 1.13 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Udinese outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.26 / defence 0.86 against Udinese attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 55% | Draw 23% | Udinese 23%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Udinese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 51%, Udinese 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Udinese's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights