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Stalemate at Fiorentina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 34, as Fiorentina and Sassuolo drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.31 xG and Sassuolo 1.00 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sassuolo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Sassuolo attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 44% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 28%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 58%, Sassuolo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Sassuolo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.42 PPG, Sassuolo 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights