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Stalemate at Fiorentina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 32, as Fiorentina and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.78 xG and Parma 0.61 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.20 / defence 0.77 against Parma attack 0.67 / defence 1.17, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 65% | Draw 25% | Parma 11%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Parma 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Parma's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.62 PPG, Parma 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights