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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Napoli run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fiorentina.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Fiorentina 0-3 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.19 xG and Napoli 1.43 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Napoli outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.20 / defence 0.92 against Napoli attack 1.16 / defence 0.74, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 31% | Draw 26% | Napoli 43%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 53%, Napoli 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Napoli's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.67 PPG, Napoli 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights