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Shock result as Lecce defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lecce beat Fiorentina 0-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.71 xG and Lecce 1.46 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.15 / defence 1.38 against Lecce attack 1.01 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 42% | Draw 27% | Lecce 31%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lecce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 62%, Lecce 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Lecce's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Lecce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Lecce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights